You probably won’t see go anywhere close to Devonta Freeman this year, and I think it’s pretty simple. There’s risk, and not enough payoff for the price.
Freeman isn’t an easy player to analyze. He’s had some great seasons, but then years like last year he didn’t play at all due to injury. But can we trust him this year? I just can’t. For starters, we have the injuries. He’s been injured all over the place throughout his NFL career, suffering three concussions, a ton of knee issues, along with a foot injury and a hamstring injury. The possibility of reinjury looks incredibly high. And I’m willing to bet the Falcons recognize that. And in turn, I doubt they’ll give him the workload he once had. During his best season, he saw snap shares of over 80 percent. Those are ideal workhorse number that analysts like me love to see. But that happened back in 2015. Each year he snap share and carries have decreased. I can already here the Tevin Coleman argument being made. But Coleman has actually been on the team since 2015, getting time during Freeman’s most successful seasons. This makes me believe that the decrease in workload wasn’t completely due to Coleman, since they probably never would’ve given him 80 percent snap shares of it was. I’d be surprised if Freeman didn’t. See an increase in work. I’ll admit that. But Smith’s workload should increase also, and Freeman won’t be the workhorse he once was.
If I were considering drafting Freeman, his ADP would completely free me of that debate. 3.03. Early third round. 28th overall. 17th among running backs. That’s crazy high. The amount of his he carries is enormous and I’m not going to take Freeman over players I trust more, like Zach Ertz, T.Y. Hilton, Adam Thielen, and Aaron Jones. The ADP I can’t get behind. I doubt he’ll see the workload he once did and in turn he just doesn’t have he same upside, especially with the strong passing game in Atlanta.
What do you think? Are you drafting Devonta Freeman this year? Leave your own opinion in the comments!
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